The other war. From hunger to toppling governments. George Friedman: We have two – the fighting in Ukraine and the economic war against Russia. It’s the economic war against Russia I suspect that’s going to in the end decide

„The recession is a financial event. It is a system in which the value of money fluctuates and which is really managed within the banking system. (…) A depression occurs when the physical system of production and distribution brake down. And they are much harder to fix. You can’t just throw money at the problem. The problem is mechanical and difficult. We evaded the entirety of the depression after COVID. We did have supply chain breakdowns, but they did not result in massive displacements – food or things like that. (…)

The war in Ukraine has been different. Because we have two wars going on: the fighting in Ukraine which I am beginning to think is less important, then the economic war against Russia. The economic war against Russia has created worldwide instability in many markets, but also commodity markets. And it’s that war I suspect that’s going to in the end decide what happens. If successful, the Russians will have to in some way capitulate. If unsuccessful, the Russians have room to fight”, George Friedman underlined.

When the front line marks the food reserves limit

According to the geopolitical analyst, it is beginning to look like a problem whether the lacks in the production and the consume system are temporary or whether there will be a general fall.

The maps we see every day with the evolution of the situation on the front line are also maps of food. The war has a direct impact on the future grains harvests.

„The (…) major wheat production in Ukraine is heavily concentrated in the east, south-east section of Ukraine. This also happens to be the area where we’re seeing most fighting”, points out Allison Fedirka, Geopolitical Futures director of analysis, indicating the red lines that are marking russian controled territory. „As the contact line moves forward, the terrain is getting destroyed”, she adds. „Now we have a big question mark over how much can Ukraine continue to produce”, Fedirka underlines.